Are Transformational Revolutions Needed in the World of Work?

“…if AI's development unfolds in an unregulated financial market, its potential may not be fully realized.  Transformational revolutions require mutually reinforcing innovations across technological, institutional, and economic domains.” Carlota Perez

Is AI Truly Revolutionary?

I asked this question in my article heavily leaning on Carlota Perez’s analysis of five tech revolutions of the last 250 years.

A reasonable response to this question, is, So What?

Does it really matter if AI is revolutionary technology or a just an evolutionary extension of the Digital Age?

For Work Futurologists, what matters is whether we can build transformational revolutions, and a new Golden Age for Work.

Perez’s analysis outlines that each Tech Revolution has an initial phase where a new technology is introduced. We then have excitement, investment, hype, and some wild extrapolation. The vested interests of Capital and Labour shift positions uncomfortably. Riches are made, there is new hope, then there are crashes, maybe riots. An example is the Industrial Revolution - triggered by new tech which enabled factories, attracted Luddite riots and eventually settled into the rise of the middle-class and the standard working week. The theory is after some excitement and chaos, a more positive Golden Age of assimilation takes place with broader societal benefits.  

“Without a clear vision, supportive policies, and collective effort, the potential benefits of the digital golden age may remain elusive.” Carlota Perez

However, a Golden Age for Work in the era of Digital Tech is not inevitable. 

We need a positive vision of what a better world of work might look like for the many - we need some mutually reinforcing innovations,

Here are some ideas to consider as we navigate the digital age…

The Future of Work: Trends To Watch

There is no universal Future of Work, like there is no universal Weather.

The futures of individuals and regions will depend on thousands of swirling factors at any given time. The variation is huge depending whether you are a Graphic Designer from Gothenburg, or you own Capital in Chicago.

Here are some trends impacting the future of work:

1. Shrinking Organisations: tasks become more automated, flexible contracts replace traditional jobs. As organisations can source work more broadly, they will need less employees.

   Example from Banking - digital-only bank Revolut serves 25 million customers with 5,000 employees, compared to U.S Bank which serves 18 million customers with 77,000 employees.

2. There Will Be Many More Ways to Get Work Done: from independent groups of freelancers, to agencies, Guilds, work-matching platforms, or just good old-fashioned automation. 

3. There Will Be Fewer Formal Jobs: The nature of work will shift, with less emphasis on traditional, formal jobs.

4. Workers Will Demand Better Work Conditions: 75% of Generation X have no plans of going full-time for their whole lives, according to a recent poll. Workers will demand better equity, more flexibility, and greater autonomy, leading to fewer bosses and offices in competitive industries.

5. Work Will be Managed With Diverse Work Contracts: not necessarily jobs, but projects, contracts, for different durations and remuneration.  In HR terms, more attrition - or Churn, baby, churn.

Feel free to give your views, or share yours in the comments, or hit reply if you want to keep your comment between us.

While these trends paint a picture of a changing landscape, what can we do to ensure this leads to a Golden Age of Work?

Building a Golden Age of Work in the Digital Age

So what might the features of a Golden Age of Work look like?

As developing nations bring their economic metrics up towards G7 levels, it is apparent that what worked in the 20^th Century will not necessarily work for the rest of the 21^st Century.

The JOB worked with industrialisation, we built our societies around it, but I am not sure this will be the right model in the future. (You can read/watch more about my arguments in an essay and video)

We can’t predict the impact of technology including AI on work. I don’t think the nirvana will be Full Employment. Taking a Global View today, 6 out 10 don’t have a formal job. Although there is historically low unemployment, an increasing proportion of those in work are still poor.

There will be plenty of work to do, but it will be organised very differently.

“Work equity is already here – it’s just not very evenly distributed.”

HT William Gibson.

So we have a world with plenty of work, but less formal jobs, constant development in terms of what skills are needed, much more movement.

The successful will need to be nimble and entrepreneurial and demand equity, the less successful will need safety nets. Here are five pathways towards a golden age of work.

Five Pathways Towards a Digital Golden Age of Work

1.    Decentralised work infrastructure for effective work-matching:  Currently our career data is controlled by a few centralised digital landlords who charge fees for us to use our own data e.g. LinkedIn. Decentralised verifiable career wallets will allow individuals to manage their data and choose which work-matching platforms to use. Being able to find people who are good fit for your business, or for workers to find suitable work vacancies is a big improvement. It is hardly the Golden Age but a fix for the terrible infrastructure or plumbing we have now in the World of Work.

2.    New Teams and Collaboration Models will Flourish: As jobs are deconstructed and unbundled into tasks, they will be rebuilt into new teams of people with mutually beneficial skills. Some new collaborative models and some old models renewed e.g. Digital Guilds and platform cooperatives. These teams will gradually pick-off chunks of work that are currently mainly done in-house by organisations.  For workers, some more flexibility, possibly more equity and autonomy.

3.    Lifelong Career Investment for a Dynamic Workforce: We cannot predict what skills will be needed by in the labour market in a few years time. But one things for sure, studying for 20 years then working for the next 50 without further training will not be feasible. Successful societies will re-train and re-skill their adult populations.

Some examples:

• Singapore are investing in SkillsFuture Credit for Mid-Careers support for 40-60 year olds. 

• In France there is the Compte Personnel de Formation (CPF), with a lifetime cap of €5000-8000

• Canadians have the Lifelong Learning Plans (LLP) which allows withdrawal from retirement savings – up to $10,000 per year for education

• The European Union has a goal for 60% adult population by 2030

There are some interesting paths this might go with AI-powered learning pathways, and verifiable learning records. How this might be funded and distributed in the future will be a debate for policy-makers.

4.    New Mechanisms for Financial Security: If full employment is unrealistic for most countries, we need new mechanisms that replace what the JOB provided, e.g. financial security, meaning, and purpose. During COVID-19, mass payments were made to families, hinting at the potential for a universal basic income or similar systems. With less income from jobs, last week we shared the latest research on Universal Basic Income. (You can still vote on whether you think it is a good idea). We might also need Universal Basic Services too, with states providing more diverse public services.

5.    More Support for Entrepreneurialism: Lifelong Learning Budgets, Universal Basic Income and Services all cost public money, where will this come from? Well these smaller organisations making more profits with less people will be asked to pay more taxes, that’s a given. With less formal jobs and less interest in having a boss and working in an office 5 days a week. More people will develop their side hustle, start businesses and find other ways to pay the bills. This has become easier with Digital Platforms. We have groups of Solopreneurs using Shopify or Etsy, or Playbourers (play and labour) making a living entertaining or providing insights.

The audience here is diverse, please share your thoughts on policy ideas that are worth considering in the comments.

Towards a Golden Age of Work

To talk in a meaningful way about the Future of Work we need to be specific and ask Who for? We cannot discuss the Future of Work without talking about what kind of society we want to live in.

Whether we can build a Golden Age for Work will depend on the context, but will also rely on mutually reinforcing innovations across technological, institutional, and economic domains. 

A future of work with more flexibility and equity for workers, more variety of contracts and assignments, and some freedom for starting businesses will need support from the public sector.

It might not seem like a dreamworld, but it can be a realistic vision to build a more inclusive future of work.  

A golden digital renaissance can usher in a new era of prosperity, innovation, and empowerment for individuals and society as a whole.

It’s up to us.

I would love to know your thoughts on this!

Not quite in the Golden Age,

Andy